Is the World Heading Toward a Recession?

Yes signs point to rising recession risk, but we’re not quite there yet. Major forecasters like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the IMF estimate a 35–60% chance of a U.S. (and even global) recession in 2025, citing factors such as worsening job and credit fundamentals, elevated tariffs, slower trade and manufacturing, and degraded household spending. Despite recent investor optimism slowing global growth and historic policy uncertainty mean key risks remain. In short, while a mild recession or “soft landing” is still possible, many analysts say the odds for a significant downturn by late 2025 are high enough that businesses, policymakers, and households should prepare now.